NOTEBOOK OF A NAIVE
The Art of Prophecy

A man who must be very annoyed at the moment is the British meteorologist Wheeler. This scholar announced for July 4 an earthquake of such violence that it would overthrow even the most solid institutions. However, never on that day was the earth more calm. The floor of cows has refused any seismic shock other than those caused in Parisian buildings by the passage of the Metro or the stamping of tenants who have not obtained a telephone connection. Really, Mr. Wheeler is out of luck. But also, we are not so reckless. This scholar was fantasizing. He escaped from the very principles of all science and launched into details, whereas the said sciences never include any.
Why give this date of July 4? You would still be considered a great man if you had declared: “A tremendous earthquake is imminent. It will happen... no later than soon. » We would still be waiting for it, and the slightest little earthquake, even if it occurred in four, five or six months, would become the one you predicted. Believe me, Mr. Wheeler, you should never upset the flower pot of tradition. Follow the example of French scientists, when asked about the future temperature. Their predictions always come true. They will tell you, for example: “Tomorrow, the sky will be blue, with a few clouds. We will have showers in places, clearings and dry weather, despite the humidity caused by the fall of the rains. » With that, there is food and drink, and everyone is happy.
Card printers do not do it any other way, and that is why they always have a large clientele. Yes, one of two things, either you have to predict events before they happen and then remain cautiously vague, or announce them when they have taken place. This last method only has advantages. There is a third way (another one used by soothsayers) which consists of predicting only pleasant events. These we can prophesy with precision. We generally believe in them, even if they do not occur, as human beings need to believe that they are happy.

Jean KOLB